Intolerance: Pedantic Debate & Folk Wisdom

            Intolerance: Pedantic

           Debate & Folk Wisdom

                                        Nidhu Bhusan Das

A debate, rather a one - way interpretation of Hinduism as a pejorative for communal majoritism is on in India today. In this respect it is pertinent to refer to how our Father of the Nation Mahatma Gandhi looked at Hinduism. The Mahatma said: “I am a Hindu because it is Hinduism which makes the world worth living. I am a Hindu hence I love not only human beings, but all living beings.” Was Gandhi communal? Did he not ardent followers like Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan, the renowned “Sheemanta Gandhi?” Was our late President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam communal or fundamentalist? What about Swami Vivekananda or Shri Arabinda,the scholar par excellence who responded to the call of spiritualism after the end of the Alipur Bomb Case?

We the common people are perplexed in the whirlwind of such debate and interpretation. It is, perhaps, difficult for common Indians to comprehend where they really stand in the polity depending on what is being dished out by way of the discussion and reactions of our enlightened few vis - a – vis the folk wisdom or the ignorance of the illiterate folks. For them all these deliberations are confusing. Folk wisdom or the ignorance of the folks is reflected in the electoral results or performances of recent years. If it is so, the wisdom being presented these days appears to be pedantic and elitist shorn of the understanding of the folk mind. I don’t know if it smacks of ostentatious and arrogant show of learning. Even the prepoll surveys conducted by professional organizations in collaboration with media entities are unable to feel the pulse of the electorate these days.

Why this happens is the moot point, and the entities might have started introspection.

When everything is judged within the framework of existing models and data base, and is just a mechanical and academic or pseudo-academic exercise, ground reality and truth may not be explored and grasped. Human behaviour being dynamic and evolving, it is difficult, depending on data analysis and sample surveys only, to predict with optimum accuracy how in a particular situation the mass will behave and decide. So, it is really a Herculean task to play the guardian of public mind any more in the evolving mass society. What had been found true for decades after independence is found not to be true in the present demographic profile of India. Those who belonged to the era of the Freedom Struggle or were born immediately after or within a few decades from Independence might have taken into account or were carried by the emotion and glow of the great struggle. They formed the majority in the electorate and dominated as opinion leaders. They imbibed the values propagated by Mahatma Gandhi and pragmatism of Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru. The majority in the electorate today is formed of people who are millennials.They live in the moment and judge by what they see now and what they think may create opportunities for them and generations-next. In India now, the debate between secularism and majoritism does not hold water for them – they seem to be concerned with the campaign for development. True, when the state has the development agenda and the party in power can project itself as the earnest pursuer of the philosophy of development and is capable of drawing up viable development plans and of implementing those wins the verdict of this neo-majority. The debate on Secularism versus Communalism does not inspire this majority as they do not tend to think it important because development in a diverse society that India is cannot be selective which is bound to be truncated that precludes limited development to hinder  national  gain in every sphere of life. A handful of rich people in a predominantly poor neighbourhood do not mean the prosperity of the area as a whole.

It is baffling why a democracy be defined with the addendum of secularism. Do our parliamentary Democracy and Republican Constitution not enough to provide for equality irrespective of caste, creed and religion? If not so, should we not be held responsible for being unable to inculcate the essential democratic values in our citizenry over the decades?

P.S. A Bengali poet has recently been sued for allegedly hurting the religious sentiment of a community in his poem posted on the Facebook. A lot of discussion is going on regarding the filing of a complaint with Siliguri police by an individual. The discussants term this action as an instance of intolerance at least at the societal, if not at the national level. The tone sounds virulent. Are they equally virulent against terrorism which is the fallout of religious fundamentalism? Have they shown their willingness to deliberate on the two states of Islam – “State of Islam” and “Islamic State”. A state leadership set a bounty on the head of Salman Rushdie when his “Satanic Verses” was released and the celebrated author had to go and remain underground for many years. The complaint with the police by an individual may not be as serious as it appears from the hue and cry compared to the fatwa against Mr. Rushdie.

Beware of Killers

          Beware of Killers, and Remember

Prevention Is Better Than Cure

Who are you, who am I? We are assets of our family to be lost soon to greed. We are assets to killers who, as agents of others, kill for money. Both the agent, who is remote controlled, and the boss who remains behind the transparent screen, are guided by Greed. The agent forgets the oath (known as the Hippocratic Oath for physicians) taken before embarking on the ‘Noble Profession’ to have compassion, to "First do no harm" (Latin: Primum non nocere) and also to “utterly reject harm and mischief” (Latin: noxamvero et maleficium propulsabo).

They, in a ceremony take, just to forget the next moment, the following oath:

“I swear to fulfill, to the best of my ability and judgment, this covenant:

I will respect the hard-won scientific gains of those physicians in whose steps I walk, and gladly share such knowledge as is mine with those who are to follow.

I will apply, for the benefit of the sick, all measures which are required, avoiding those twin traps of over treatment and therapeutic nihilism.

I will remember that there is art to medicine as well as science, and that warmth, sympathy, and understanding may outweigh the surgeon's knife or the chemist's drug.

CM Mamata Banerjee with the top representatives
of private hospitals and nursing homes of  WB.
Courtesy: Hindustan Times

I will not be ashamed to say "I know not," nor will I fail to call in my colleagues when the skills of another are needed for a patient's recovery.

I will respect the privacy of my patients, for their problems are not disclosed to me that the world may know. Most especially must I tread with care in matters of life and death. Above all, I must not play at God.

I will remember that I do not treat a fever chart, a cancerous growth, but a sick human being, whose illness may affect the person's family and economic stability. My responsibility includes these related problems, if I am to care adequately for the sick.

I will prevent disease whenever I can but I will always look for a path to a cure for all diseases.

I will remember that I remain a member of society, with special obligations to all my fellow human beings, sound of mind and body as well as the infirm.

If I do not violate this oath, may I enjoy life and art, respected while I live and remembered with affection thereafter. May I always act so as to preserve the finest traditions of my calling and may I long experience the joy of healing those who seek my help.”

(Written in 1964 by Louis Lasagna, Academic Dean of the School of Medicine at Tufts University).

    What we see around today in West Bengal is the violation of the covenant. We have disease means we are assets for the violators of the covenant. The family of the sick becomes the easy prey to the greed of the vultures among the medical practitioners. They spend, in many cases, all they have and then lose their assets to the greed of those they believed were their messiahs. The losers are helpless people, unable to seek and find justice in the court of law because they don’t have the capacity to fight protracted battles.

    Antonio could be protected from the greed and cruelty of Shylock because a Portia was there to argue his case in the court of the Venetian Duke (The Merchant of Venice by William Shakespeare). Should we expect Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee will be able to protect the sick in future from the vultures with stringent legislation and the judiciary can go for suo motto action against the culprits? What happens is not the fallout of negligence, but of sheer greed.

   The Chief Minister on 22 February in a meeting at the Town Hall, Kolkata, with the top representatives of dozens of private hospitals and nursing homes of the state, echoed the popular grievances and hauled them up for overcharging patients and shoddy service. 

“Is the kidney racket still going on in your hospital?” lashed out chief minister Mamata Banerjee leaving the representative of one of the prominent private hospitals of Kolkata fumbling for answers. “I will not allow any kidney racket, or baby racket, to run in Bengal,” she remarked while speaking to authorities of Medica Superspeciality Hospital. (Incidentally, CID had investigated a case of alleged kidney racket against the hospital. The case is subjudice.)

“I was speaking with someone from Bangladesh. They told me that they are thinking of not sending patients to your hospital. You charge exorbitantly high,” Mamata Banerjee told Rana Dasgupta, the CEO of Apollo Gleneagles Hospitals. The official tried to answer her queries but faced a torrent of allegations from the chief minister.

Better to Reign in Hell!

  Better to Reign in Hell!

                                Nidhu Bhusan Das

                       “Better to reign in Hell, than to serve in Heaven”

                                                                       -John Milton

                                                           Paradise Lost, Bk 1(Line-263)

        Is it better to be the master of Hell and be in Hell? Maybe, may not be. It depends on attitude, the way we look at life. Milton composed the epic to ‘Justify the ways of God to men’. We need not be religious to understand the significance of the quote above if we read it with what the Satan tells his fellow fallen angels that precedes it  in lines 159-162:’To do aught(anything) good never will be our task,/But ever to do ill our sole delight,/As being the contrary to his will/Who we resist…’ Besides, we can read the secular meaning of the word in the phrase’ all hell broke’ which means chaos/confusion and the opposite of it being ‘heaven’ or a place or state of happiness. Today ‘happiness index’ is taken into account when it comes to justify the growth in the economy of a country. True, GDP growth isn’t necessarily an indicator of happiness and standard living of all in a country.

     It isn’t contradicted that India has a strong shadow or parallel economy. The existence of such an economy doesn’t speak of a society where law has an absolute and effective sway. The menace needs be fought and removed to ensure a real welfare state. None, possibly, disagrees on this point. Opinion may vary on how to blot it out. No reforms have, so far, been able to do away with the problem. Against this background, the present Government of India has embarked on a demonetization drive. Certain economists like Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen termed this drive as ‘autocratic’. Most of the opposition parties and leaders are up in arms against it and all hell broke in the winter session of the Parliament all through on the issue of demonetization. When economists of the ilk and stature of Amartya Sen decries the drive, I dare not, and I should not contradict. What puzzles people with lack of financial literacy like me is that none so far, not even our law makers, has told us what could be the viable alternative to fight the menace in the economy.

Is it prevarication, especially on the part of our parliamentarians? I was glued to the TV the time Dr. Manmohan Singh spoke in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House) on the issue. He has the credit of ushering in the era of economic reforms way back in 1991with commendable courage and astuteness as the Finance Minister of the Narasimha Rao Government and bringing the economy back to track from the brink of collapse. Even then a part of the opposition vehemently opposed the structural reforms without rhyme and reason. They could not offer any alternative proposal to salvage the economy from dire straits. Dr. Manmohan Singh had been two-time Prime Minister from May 2004 to May 2014 before the present incumbent Narendra Modi took office. I expected Dr. Singh would come up with an alternative which the present Government would not have been able to eschew. I thought Dr. Singh would speak of an alternative because he knows the pain corruption inflicted on him during his tenure as Prime Minister which was sallied by scams involving some of his colleagues in the Council of Ministers. Scams strengthen shadow economy and the climate of parallel economy inspires scams and kickbacks. None should know it better than Dr. Singh in the Indian context with a vast experience as advisor in the Ministry of Foreign Trade, Chief Economic Advisor, Reserve Bank Governor and Planning Commission Head.

     Should we live in a hell where shadow economy should be allowed to reign or should we be rescued to the shores of a sound economy for social justice? Till date ‘social justice’ is elusive to the Indian mass and politics only exhibits ‘lip service’ to this coinage of a noble idea.

http://wwwnidhu.blogspot.com

Two Novels: A Discourse on the Pains of Partition

          Two Novels: A Discourse

          on the Pains of Partition

                                        Nidhu Bhusan Das

      ‘Dui Nagar’ and ‘Keertinasha’ are a discourse on the pains and trauma of the partition of Bengal in 1947.The exodus of Hindus from East Bengal, rechristened East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, and that of Muslims from West Bengal, now Bangla is the theme of both the novels by Tanvir Mokammel, a renowned film maker and poet of Bangladesh who has recently entered into the realm of novel writing. We know Tanvir has the knack and a profound sense of duty to document the events and movements in the chequered history of Bengal. He is set to return from page to celluloid with his upcoming docu-film ‘Seemantarekha’ with the same theme.

      ‘Keertinasha’ reflects Tanvir’s egalitarian approach to the subject while it is evidently elitist in ‘Dui Nagar’.’Keertinasha’ is the tale of cementing/reinforcing  friendship between two neighbouring Hindu and Muslim families against the imminent materialization of the hitherto amorphous Pakistan, till today called an Acronym by intellectuals like Pakistan born Canadian Tareq Fatah.

      ‘Dui Nagar’ begins with a qoute from ‘A TALE OF TWO CITIES’, a fictionalized account of the Frech Revolution based,inter alia, on Dickens’ reading of Carlyle’s ‘French Revolution’.The lengthy first sentence of the novel, which the present novelist partially excerpts (“It was the best of times,it was the worst of times…”), set the tone of the victorian novel.Dickens drew his inspiration not only from Carlyle’s work but also drew on Wilkie Collins’ ‘The Frozen Deep’ the theme of which is love- two eligible persons being in love  simultaneously,with a lovely girl.Dickens’ novel,turns out to be a love story in the background of the French Revolution,and the novelist consciously foregrounded the story of love.No such foregrounding of love is intended and found in ‘Dui Nagar’.

        In the English novel,the yarn is spun with Dr. Manette being the link between the history and the love story.If  Lucie Manette is innocence-incarnate,the research scholar Jayati from Kolkata is experience-incarnate in ‘Dui Nagar’.Two  suitors seek her hand,she reciprocates the love of Charles Darnay who has declassed himself detesting the brutality of his father and uncle  and their estate.She couldn’t reciprocate sydney Carton’s love ,but she had profound compassion and love for him,and he  ultimately,for the sake of Lucie, saved the life of Darnay,choosing to be beheaded under the Guillotine.

      Unlike ‘A TALE OF TWO CITIES’ , ‘Dui Nagar’ is a docu-novel.The former is not a story of exodus of refugees across the international border of two neighbouring countries  as the latter is.In the ‘Tale’ we find love transcends cruelty.Jayati is in Dhaka  in connection with her research on ‘Partition and Trauma of Women’. Which women? Those house wives who had to leave  their dear hearth and home for an uncertain future which awaited the families of refugees?Perhaps,it is not within the capacity of Jayati to delve into the essence of the trauma,she being esconced in a well-to-do family and having premarrital sexual experience twice with two boy friends,the thirst remaining undiminished. Only the love making with Professor Raihan could satisfy her and she asks her man of choice on the eve of departure:” Coming to Kolkata,sure?” Raihan replies, suggestively:”Go I must.”Jayati travelled but didn’t go for survey or field work in Bangladesh.Maybe, her thesis will be enriched with open source data ,and  discussions in the drawing rooms and over tea and dinner in the elite circuit.A  freedom fighter and married,Professor Raihan is in the Shahbag Movement which is yet to spread across the country effectively enough to counter the fundamentalists,its avowed goal.It apprears to be elite inspired and remains elite-centric.The freedom fighter has evolved into a different man,being coaxed by Jayati. He could have been a Shohrab ( ‘Keertinasha’) had the author not abandoned the railroad from Kolkata to Bongaon for the road journey between Dhaka and Barishal via Faridpur to enhance the desire of his heroine. Raihan has been deprived of his finer feeling and emotion reflected in his quest for a boyhood friend Aboni who is settled in Bongaon across the border.Jayati accompanies him in his successful quest,but friendship is not overcast by lust.Afterall,character is characterization,poor Raihan!

       Apart from this, the research of the author himself into the phenomenon of post-partition exodus which has gone into the making of his debut novel is praiseworthy. His thought is felt and his erudition lends objectivity to his story, rather than being a burden.The novelist could have,perhaps, reasonably done away with the idea of  inserting a puerile  research scholar in the story, or bring one who is not sensual but sensitive to be  a character really contributing to the story.Has the author not lost the train and derailed Raihan?

      Tanvir has done the job quite well,and with courage, in his second novel ‘Keertinasha’.

     ‘Keertinasha’ presents the effort of two families-one Hindu, one Muslim – to continue as neighbours in amity. The two families lived at a village of Bikrampur which bore the brunt of the destructive potential of the mighty Padma. If the Padma devoured the fertile soil and edifices of Bikrampur, partition of Bengal deprived it of its rich cultural heritage and intellectual pride and proclivity. One may read into the text the Saudade of the poet-novelist - had there been no partition!

       Two patriarchs of the neighbouring families- the Hindu school teacher and the Muslim peasant- sheltered under the village banyan from rain on their way back home one night decided to ceremonially befriend their sons of the same age. The teacher mooted the proposal and the peasant agreed to it. The ceremony was held accordingly, and Sohrab and Suhas were knotted in friendship.Though this was not a novelty (the novelist said such ceremony was in vogue),the backdrop agaist which it was held was significant,a desperate attempt to remain in amity given the communal overtone of the Two Nations Theory which gradually found acceptance in Bengal. The two friends remained together till the ultimate migration of the family of the Hindu friend Suhas to India.

        The novel doesn’t have any heroine like in ‘Dui Nagar’.Sohrab,the protagonist, in his melancholy  on the bank of the Padma to bid adieu to the family,resolves to save Bikrampur from the future havoc to be wreaked by the aggressive river.Let’s echo the  loud thought of Sohrab articulated by the novelist:” Suhas is gone.He(Sohrab) has to fight alone against the  aggression,must protect and preserve the glorious heritage of Bikrampur of his forefathers.Will he be able to do it? Sohrab feels a bit lonely standing on the bank of Keertinasha Padma in the late evening of the month of Shravon.Yes,it would have been better if Suhas stayed back.”The absence of a heroine doesn’t create any impression that the tale lacks love.The love for Bikrampur, the pining for the friend and the sense of his heritage together help the protagonist  to be resolute.For the novelist ,the aggressive Padma symbolizes destructive politics which the Divide and Rule Ploicy of the British engendered driving a wedge between the two communities that lived in amity for centuries.

Dui Nagar

Keertinasha

Author: Tanvir Mokammel

Publisher

Creative Dhaka Publications

12,Outer Circular Road

Razarbagh,Dhaka-1217

creativedhakaltd@gmail.com

www.creativedhakalimited.com

Fight for the Whitehouse

    Fight for the

    Whitehouse

                                            Nidhu Bhusan Das

 

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

        



The race for US Presidency is on. The popular vote is on 8 November 2016.U.S. citizens vote in the presidential vote every four years on Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The election is held in even-numbered years like this year. On the day the voters will elect the electors, the members of the Electoral College, who ultimately elect the President and his/her running mate, the Vice-President on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, this time on December 19.The electoral votes are counted in the joint session of Congress, the federal legislature in January. This time they will be counted on 6 January 2017.That day will let the world know who succeeds the incumbent Barak Obama who retires after serving two terms of eight years.

     Nomination:  Now who join the race and how?  The US has two dominant parties –the Republicans and the Democrats. There are Third Parties as well like the Green Party and the Constitution Party. Third parties and independent candidates are minor players in the US, unlike in India.

The two dominant parties nominate their candidates in primaries or caucuses. In a Primary, party members vote for the best candidate who will represent them in the General Election. In a Caucus party members select the best candidate through a series of discussions and votes. 

    Eligibility: The Presidential candidate must be a natural born citizen, at least 35 years old and U.S. resident for 14 years.

    General Election: People in every state across the country vote for one President and Vice President. When they cast their vote, they are actually voting for a group of people know as Electors.  

   Electoral College: The Electoral College comprises the electors who serve as intermediaries for the country’s voters. In the system each state and the District of Columbia gets a certain number of electors based on its representation in the Congress. The District of Columbia is not a state and does not have any representation in the Congress. But they have 3 electors like the state of Wyoming which has the lowest population. Each state has two senators (the members of the Senate, the Upper House of the Congress like the Rajya Sabha of the Indian Parliament) and a different number of members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the federal legislature like the Indian Loksabha.U.S. states are entitled to a number electors equal to the number of their members of Congress. The number of Representatives changes every 10 years, based on the population of the state.

This time the strength of the Electoral College is of 538. A simple majority of 270 i.e. 51% votes will decide who will occupy the Whitehouse for the next four years.

Usually, the electors vote according to the results of the November popular vote. However, the federal law or the Constitution does not mandate them to do so.

In the history of the United States, the winner of the popular vote didn’t win the electoral vote four times in 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000. In 2000 Al Gore won the highest popular votes but the Electoral College selected George W. Bush for president.

    Front Runners : This time two front runners are  the former First Lady and Secretary of state for the first term Obama administration  Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party and  Donald Trump of the Republican Party.

        

Bureaucracy in Bengladesh

Bureaucracy in Bengladesh

           Nidhu Bhusan Das

         The Government of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh faces a challenge to fill in the vacancies following the retirement of top bureaucrats who imbibe the spirit of the Liberation War. These bureaucrats help the Prime Minister implement the agenda of bringing about a resurgent and

developed Bangladesh shorn of fundamentalism.

         Bureaucracy in Bangladesh, for different reasons, is politicized to a significant extent. After the assassination of the Father of the Nation Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, fondly called Bangabandhu, on 15 August 1975, the new nation remained under military rule till 1990. The military rulers depended on the support of the civil bureaucracy, and in lieu of the support the civil bureaucracy strengthened its position. The military and dictatorial rule ended in 1990 with the widow of the assassinated President Ziaur Rahman, Begum Khaleda Zia winning the parliamentary elections and becoming Prime Minister with the support of the Islamic party Jamat-e-Islami. Her rule saw a massive politicization of the bureaucracy.

        The primary emphasis was placed on recruiting “party men bureaucrats”. Besides, it is alleged; candidates with links to student wings of the ruling party and its ally Jamat-e-Islami were recruited. On February 8, 1992, the government decided to promote as many as 654 officials, which created a lot of controversy.

        In 1996, a number of senior bureaucrats were directly involved in a movement to remove a democratically elected government. In 2001, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party returned to power and had since tried to maintain firm control over the bureaucracy, making it highly politicized. The government appointed 978 officials as “Officer on Special duty” (OSD). The rule of seniority was, allegedly, circumvented to serve the political interest of the ruling party. 493 officials were promoted to the post of Deputy Secretary depriving 322 on February 10 and 16, 2003. On August 27, 2003, 97 were promoted to the post of Additional Secretary depriving 104 and 49 were promoted to the post of Joint Secretary depriving 277 on August 27, 2003. 61 were promoted depriving 31 on March 5, 2005. 378 Senior Assistant Secretaries were promoted to the post of Deputy Secretary depriving around 200 others on January 26, 2006. 153 Deputy Secretaries were elevated to the post of Joint Secretary on July 13 2006, depriving around 100 eligible officers.

       A number of civil servants directly participated in political activities and sought nomination to participate in the upcoming elections. For instance, a civil servant appointed on contractual basis after his retirement was known to be involved in active politics and was projecting himself as a candidate of the ruling party. Thus the top bureaucracy was packed with civil servants favoured by and loyal to the BNP-Jamat combine, it is alleged.

Now, of the 74 secretaries,50 percent are said to be aligned to BNP-Jamat camp,25 percent always tend to be with the party in power and the rest 25 percent go with the spirit and ideology of the Liberation War of 1971.

       Political analysts in Dhaka say, in a couple of years, bureaucrats endowed with the spirit of the Liberation War are going to be few and far between in Bangladesh. Specifically, BCS officers up to1984 batch, by and large, have the spirit. Some of them are already retired. Some got extension for two years on January 26, 2006.The analysts say, it is imperative that the pro-liberation officers be kept in positions of decision making and power till subsequent recruits having the historical sense and spirit of the Liberation War are found capable to deal with the fundamentalist elements in the post-1984 bureaucrats who are thoroughly imbibed with the idea of an Islamic State. The Muslim bureaucrats of the pre-1985 BCS are secular because they have seen or taken part in the War in different forms and manners.

        About 20 secretaries are serving on extension. When the extension period is over, there may not be enough personnel suitable to fill in the vacancies, say the analysts. Those who are retired may be brought to different positions by way of nominations for implementing the agenda of the present government to bring about a qualitative change in the governance and polity which the Hasina Government is set to do, the secular and pro-liberation intellectuals of the capital opine.

       The Government appears to be aware of the situation. Meanwhile, Dr. Mohammad Sadique has been brought as the Chairman of the Public Service Commission, and Mr Ujjwal Bikash Datta and Mr. Abul Kalam Azad are made its members after retirement. Mr. Hasan Mahmood Khandakar, former IGP have been made the Ambassador of Bangladesh in Spain, Mr. Abdul Mannan Hawladar, former secretary, is now Ambassador to Mauritius, Mr. Sobhan Sikdar, former Secretary, Establishment, is now Ambassador to Rome. Mr. Mikhail Shipar, former Secretary has been given extension like some other secretaries, inter alia, Mr. Sayeed Manjurul Islam, Mr. Mohammad Alauddin. They are all efficient bureaucrats and are of immense value to the present Government. Mr. Mollah Wahiduzzaman, former PS to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was upgraded to the position of the Chairman of the Privatization Board with the status of a State Minister. He served in that position till 31st August last with authority and efficiency. Such former bureaucrats, it appears, are thought to be assets of the present dispensation in Bangladesh.

linkme.nidhu@gmail.com

Another Mamata Magic

               Exit Polls Predict

       Another Mamata Magic

           

                                     Nidhu Bhusan Das

 The exit polls published in the evening of 16 May  for West Bengal Assembly polls 2016 held in seven phases  spread over  32 days predict  Mamata Banerjee’s  Trinamool Congress (TMC) retains power and forms the government the second time in a row. The predictions belie the hope and claim of the opposition and main contender Left Front-Congress Alliance, the strange bedfellows, that they would dethrone the Didi’s party. It also might have dampen the spirit of certain euphoric mobile apps  and social networks users who predicted  with statistical jugglery  a victory of the Alliance ,and even released a cabinet .However, the Alliance leaders would not  yield ground till the counting and declaration of the results by the Election Commission. They are hopeful that the formation of an alliance government is only a matter of time. CPI-M MP Ritabrata Banerjee and Congress leader Abdul Mannan said that whatever might be the exit poll prediction, the formation of the alliance government was "imminent". Mannan claimed people had voted in favour of the alliance. We all tend to hope against hope till the end. 

          TMC spokesperson Derek O'Brien said in response to the polls: "We don't want to comment. But there has been a negative campaign run against us by the BJP and the Congress and Left."

He said, “We will wait for May 19 and the actual results. The people of Bengal will bless Trinamool abundantly. Mamata Banerjee government's peace and communal harmony will win the hearts and minds of the people of Bengal."

Courtesy: NDTV

            The poll of polls - which aggregates different exit polls - shows the Chief Minister's Trinamool Congress wins 184 of 294 seats. It has the same number of seats, 184, in the outgoing assembly.
The Left-Congress Alliance is predicted to win 103 seats and the BJP, five.
India Today predicts a landslide for the Trinamool with 243 seats. It says the Left-Congress will win 45 seats and the BJP will win three.
ABP Ananda predicted that 163 seats would go to the Trinamool, 126 to the Alliance and the BJP would get one seat.
Chanakya gives Mamata Banerjee's party 210 seats, the Left and Congress 70 and the BJP 14 seats.
          Senior journalist Manini Chatterjee said,” I feel that Mamata Banerjee's hold over the underclass, the poor is very much there. I think she has the edge in Bengal.”

         Dr Sandeep Shastri said, “Voters are giving time to the Mamata government to deliver on promises made.”

         Surjit Bhalla said, “What we are seeing in Assam and West Bengal is the beginning of the end of Congress.”

         If the predictions come true, Mamata is going to form the government.

        In the outgoing Assembly Trinamool Congress has 184 members which she is going to retain this time round, and anti-incumbency might have not played any role. Left Front has 62 and Congress 42 members in the outgoing Assembly. In case what the Poll of Polls shows tallies with the actual outcome, the Alliance is going to be down one seat from 104, BJP is gaining four and GJM is set to lose one from three and two incase SUCI retains its one seat. In case the BJP tally includes the GJM seats if they retain their all three, BJP is going two gain

one only. Last time Congress fought the elections in alliance with Trinamool Congress. In the event of India Today’s projections coming true, Mamata stands to have a big gain of 59 seats while the Alliance loses the equal number. If the Chanakya forecast tallies with the actual results, TMC will gain 26 while the Alliance stands to lose 34 seats.

ABP Ananda predicted a loss of 21 seats for TMC and a gain of 22 for the Alliance, no gain for BJP.

        Let us wait two more days what is the actual verdict.