Another Mamata Magic

               Exit Polls Predict

       Another Mamata Magic

           

                                     Nidhu Bhusan Das

 The exit polls published in the evening of 16 May  for West Bengal Assembly polls 2016 held in seven phases  spread over  32 days predict  Mamata Banerjee’s  Trinamool Congress (TMC) retains power and forms the government the second time in a row. The predictions belie the hope and claim of the opposition and main contender Left Front-Congress Alliance, the strange bedfellows, that they would dethrone the Didi’s party. It also might have dampen the spirit of certain euphoric mobile apps  and social networks users who predicted  with statistical jugglery  a victory of the Alliance ,and even released a cabinet .However, the Alliance leaders would not  yield ground till the counting and declaration of the results by the Election Commission. They are hopeful that the formation of an alliance government is only a matter of time. CPI-M MP Ritabrata Banerjee and Congress leader Abdul Mannan said that whatever might be the exit poll prediction, the formation of the alliance government was "imminent". Mannan claimed people had voted in favour of the alliance. We all tend to hope against hope till the end. 

          TMC spokesperson Derek O'Brien said in response to the polls: "We don't want to comment. But there has been a negative campaign run against us by the BJP and the Congress and Left."

He said, “We will wait for May 19 and the actual results. The people of Bengal will bless Trinamool abundantly. Mamata Banerjee government's peace and communal harmony will win the hearts and minds of the people of Bengal."

Courtesy: NDTV

            The poll of polls - which aggregates different exit polls - shows the Chief Minister's Trinamool Congress wins 184 of 294 seats. It has the same number of seats, 184, in the outgoing assembly.
The Left-Congress Alliance is predicted to win 103 seats and the BJP, five.
India Today predicts a landslide for the Trinamool with 243 seats. It says the Left-Congress will win 45 seats and the BJP will win three.
ABP Ananda predicted that 163 seats would go to the Trinamool, 126 to the Alliance and the BJP would get one seat.
Chanakya gives Mamata Banerjee's party 210 seats, the Left and Congress 70 and the BJP 14 seats.
          Senior journalist Manini Chatterjee said,” I feel that Mamata Banerjee's hold over the underclass, the poor is very much there. I think she has the edge in Bengal.”

         Dr Sandeep Shastri said, “Voters are giving time to the Mamata government to deliver on promises made.”

         Surjit Bhalla said, “What we are seeing in Assam and West Bengal is the beginning of the end of Congress.”

         If the predictions come true, Mamata is going to form the government.

        In the outgoing Assembly Trinamool Congress has 184 members which she is going to retain this time round, and anti-incumbency might have not played any role. Left Front has 62 and Congress 42 members in the outgoing Assembly. In case what the Poll of Polls shows tallies with the actual outcome, the Alliance is going to be down one seat from 104, BJP is gaining four and GJM is set to lose one from three and two incase SUCI retains its one seat. In case the BJP tally includes the GJM seats if they retain their all three, BJP is going two gain

one only. Last time Congress fought the elections in alliance with Trinamool Congress. In the event of India Today’s projections coming true, Mamata stands to have a big gain of 59 seats while the Alliance loses the equal number. If the Chanakya forecast tallies with the actual results, TMC will gain 26 while the Alliance stands to lose 34 seats.

ABP Ananda predicted a loss of 21 seats for TMC and a gain of 22 for the Alliance, no gain for BJP.

        Let us wait two more days what is the actual verdict.