WB Assembly Polls: Suspension of Disbelief
Euphoria may
give way to
Dysphoria for
Party Zealots
Nidhu Bhusan Das
A
dysphoria is bound to set in among those party zealots in West Bengal who are euphoric ,being in a
state of suspension of disbelief, about the actual outcome of the State Assembly
elections 2016 well ahead of the counting of votes and declaration of results on
19 May. These zealots are, perhaps, passing through a
high-energy delusional phase to the point of being in a bipolar disorder. WhatsApp groups
and certain contributors in the
Wikipedia predict victory for the Left
Front-Congress Alliance contrary to the opinion polls published before the elections.
Summary of West Bengal Assembly Election 2016 Opinion Poll
(March-2016 Projection)
|
|||||
Party/Alliance
|
Elections.in
|
ABP-Neilsen
|
News Nation
|
ETV Bangla
|
|
TMC
|
190
|
160
|
178
|
165
|
201
|
CPM+
|
100
|
127
|
110
|
125
|
64
|
BJP
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
Other
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
3
|
0
|
Total Seats
|
294
|
294
|
294
|
294
|
266
|
According to an analysis by renowned Journalist
Prannoy Roy who
is an expert in election coverage, the Trinamool Congress has 60% chance of coming back to power
in West Bengal . The Left-Congress combine has 40% chance of winning. The
analysis points out that a swing of 3% votes could change the outcome of the
elections. . Roy
One may, reasonably, argue that the elections outcome
may be different following the collapse of a wing of the flyover in Kolkata and
the Narada Sting operation expose in the midst of the polls. How much the swing
factor was influenced by these and the stringent measures of the Election
Commission is a matter of guess until the counting of votes. The Exit polls to
be published on 16 May evening may give a hint.
The Times of India, in reference to the menace, says, Section 126 of the
Representation of the People's Act-1951 bans polls (including exit polls) from
48 hours before an election and does cover "electronic media".
But, according to the rulebook, "electronic
media" includes radio and television but not mobile phones, leave alone a
phone-based app.
So, the WhatsApp groups have taken over, trying
to bridge an important demand-supply gap. Taken together, these "polls"
throw up curious results, giving a wide variety of outcomes for the same
election.
The first of these "poll results"
started doing the rounds of WhatsApp forums six days back. It shows the
LF-Congress alliance galloping to office with 176 seats; the ruling Trinamool
Congress gets a mere 114. This "poll" gives BJP three seats. But even
Left and Congress leaders have dubbed this "result" as "very
ambitious".
It also gives the vote shares down to a decimal point: TMC gets 37.6%, the opposition alliance 44.1% and the BJP 10.8%. This is the one "poll" that comes with the logo of a research agency known for its accuracy. This was the first of the "reports" that started doing the rounds on April 27, the dayBengal witnessed former
chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee trying to fit into a garland with
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.
Then there is the "Central IB report". This detailed district-wise "poll result" gives the alliance a majority of 150 seats; it gives Trinamool 136 and the BJP five. But there is another "Central IB report", which corrects the data and gives the alliance 165 seats, Trinamool 121 and BJP eight.
It also gives the vote shares down to a decimal point: TMC gets 37.6%, the opposition alliance 44.1% and the BJP 10.8%. This is the one "poll" that comes with the logo of a research agency known for its accuracy. This was the first of the "reports" that started doing the rounds on April 27, the day
Then there is the "Central IB report". This detailed district-wise "poll result" gives the alliance a majority of 150 seats; it gives Trinamool 136 and the BJP five. But there is another "Central IB report", which corrects the data and gives the alliance 165 seats, Trinamool 121 and BJP eight.
Wouldn’t Goebbels, the German Propaganda Minister of Hitler, be happy that he had been able to leave behind a crop of his progenitors in
West Bengal, at least, and be consoled that he has so long been ‘more sinned against than
sinning’ by way of denigration in the state which joined the chorus against him
after the fall of the Third Reich?
We don’t know what’s in store for the
contesting and contending parties but we cannot and shouldn’t rely on the
disinformation being doled out .I believe the leaders of the parties don’t go
by such disinformation. We may read what
Mr. Biman Bose,Left Front chairman, said on 13 May hinting at what he understands could be the possible outcome.
CPI(M) West Bengal unit website http://www.cpimwb.org.in/ carries what the leader said.Biman Bose said
after the Left Front meeting “No victory rally will be brought out in the
constituencies where left candidates win.” (নির্বাচনী ফলাফলে যে সকল আসনে বাম প্রার্থীরা জয়লাভ করবেন, সেখানে করা যাবে না কোনও বিজয় মিছিল।) The leader
then said “Price of commodities is sky rocketing.The Task Force has failed to
harness the rise.Bankura and Purulia are under drought situation.water for
irrigation and drinking is not available.State Government is unresponsive.Left
Front will take to street in protest.” (, জিনিসপত্রের অস্বাভাবিক মুল্যবৃদ্ধি হয়েই চলেছে। মূল্যবৃদ্ধি নিয়ন্ত্রণে টাস্ক ফোর্স ব্যর্থ। বাঁকুড়া, পুরুলিয়ায় খরা পরিস্থিতি, নেই চাষের জল, নেই পানীয় জল। হেলদোল নেই রাজ্য সরকারের। এই সব ঘটনার প্রতিবাদে রাস্তায় নামবে বামফ্রন্ট।)
Does it
mean that the Left Front is going to protest against the inaction of their newly installed Alliance Government?
