Another Mamata Magic

               Exit Polls Predict

       Another Mamata Magic

           

                                     Nidhu Bhusan Das

 The exit polls published in the evening of 16 May  for West Bengal Assembly polls 2016 held in seven phases  spread over  32 days predict  Mamata Banerjee’s  Trinamool Congress (TMC) retains power and forms the government the second time in a row. The predictions belie the hope and claim of the opposition and main contender Left Front-Congress Alliance, the strange bedfellows, that they would dethrone the Didi’s party. It also might have dampen the spirit of certain euphoric mobile apps  and social networks users who predicted  with statistical jugglery  a victory of the Alliance ,and even released a cabinet .However, the Alliance leaders would not  yield ground till the counting and declaration of the results by the Election Commission. They are hopeful that the formation of an alliance government is only a matter of time. CPI-M MP Ritabrata Banerjee and Congress leader Abdul Mannan said that whatever might be the exit poll prediction, the formation of the alliance government was "imminent". Mannan claimed people had voted in favour of the alliance. We all tend to hope against hope till the end. 

          TMC spokesperson Derek O'Brien said in response to the polls: "We don't want to comment. But there has been a negative campaign run against us by the BJP and the Congress and Left."

He said, “We will wait for May 19 and the actual results. The people of Bengal will bless Trinamool abundantly. Mamata Banerjee government's peace and communal harmony will win the hearts and minds of the people of Bengal."

Courtesy: NDTV

            The poll of polls - which aggregates different exit polls - shows the Chief Minister's Trinamool Congress wins 184 of 294 seats. It has the same number of seats, 184, in the outgoing assembly.
The Left-Congress Alliance is predicted to win 103 seats and the BJP, five.
India Today predicts a landslide for the Trinamool with 243 seats. It says the Left-Congress will win 45 seats and the BJP will win three.
ABP Ananda predicted that 163 seats would go to the Trinamool, 126 to the Alliance and the BJP would get one seat.
Chanakya gives Mamata Banerjee's party 210 seats, the Left and Congress 70 and the BJP 14 seats.
          Senior journalist Manini Chatterjee said,” I feel that Mamata Banerjee's hold over the underclass, the poor is very much there. I think she has the edge in Bengal.”

         Dr Sandeep Shastri said, “Voters are giving time to the Mamata government to deliver on promises made.”

         Surjit Bhalla said, “What we are seeing in Assam and West Bengal is the beginning of the end of Congress.”

         If the predictions come true, Mamata is going to form the government.

        In the outgoing Assembly Trinamool Congress has 184 members which she is going to retain this time round, and anti-incumbency might have not played any role. Left Front has 62 and Congress 42 members in the outgoing Assembly. In case what the Poll of Polls shows tallies with the actual outcome, the Alliance is going to be down one seat from 104, BJP is gaining four and GJM is set to lose one from three and two incase SUCI retains its one seat. In case the BJP tally includes the GJM seats if they retain their all three, BJP is going two gain

one only. Last time Congress fought the elections in alliance with Trinamool Congress. In the event of India Today’s projections coming true, Mamata stands to have a big gain of 59 seats while the Alliance loses the equal number. If the Chanakya forecast tallies with the actual results, TMC will gain 26 while the Alliance stands to lose 34 seats.

ABP Ananda predicted a loss of 21 seats for TMC and a gain of 22 for the Alliance, no gain for BJP.

        Let us wait two more days what is the actual verdict.

 

WB Assembly Polls: Suspension of Disbelief

   WB Assembly Polls: Suspension of Disbelief

Euphoria may give way to

Dysphoria for Party Zealots

                                               Nidhu Bhusan Das

             A dysphoria is bound to set in among those party zealots in West Bengal who are euphoric ,being in a state of suspension of disbelief, about the actual outcome of the State Assembly elections 2016 well ahead of the counting of votes and declaration of results on 19 May. These zealots are, perhaps, passing through a high-energy delusional phase to the point of being in a bipolar disorder.   WhatsApp groups and certain  contributors in the Wikipedia  predict victory for the Left Front-Congress Alliance contrary to the opinion polls published  before the elections.

      

      Summary of West Bengal Assembly Election 2016                                       Opinion Poll

(March-2016 Projection)
Party/Alliance	Elections.in	India TV-C Voter	ABP-Neilsen	News Nation	ETV Bangla
TMC	190	160	178	165	201
CPM+	100	127	110	125	64
BJP	2	4	1	1	0
Other	2	3	5	3	0
Total Seats	294	294	294	294	266

            According to an analysis by renowned Journalist Prannoy Roy who is an expert in election coverage, the Trinamool Congress has 60% chance of coming back to power in West Bengal. The Left-Congress combine has 40% chance of winning. The analysis points out that a swing of 3% votes could change the outcome of the elections. . Roy’s analysis is based on historical data and current alliances.

           One may, reasonably, argue that the elections outcome may be different following the collapse of a wing of the flyover in Kolkata and the Narada Sting operation expose in the midst of the polls. How much the swing factor was influenced by these and the stringent measures of the Election Commission is a matter of guess until the counting of votes. The Exit polls to be published on 16 May evening may give a hint.

         The Times of India, in reference to the menace, says, Section 126 of the Representation of the People's Act-1951 bans polls (including exit polls) from 48 hours before an election and does cover "electronic media".
But, according to the rulebook, "electronic media" includes radio and television but not mobile phones, leave alone a phone-based app.

        So, the WhatsApp groups have taken over, trying to bridge an important demand-supply gap. Taken together, these "polls" throw up curious results, giving a wide variety of outcomes for the same election.

        The first of these "poll results" started doing the rounds of WhatsApp forums six days back. It shows the LF-Congress alliance galloping to office with 176 seats; the ruling Trinamool Congress gets a mere 114. This "poll" gives BJP three seats. But even Left and Congress leaders have dubbed this "result" as "very ambitious".
It also gives the vote shares down to a decimal point: TMC gets 37.6%, the opposition alliance 44.1% and the BJP 10.8%. This is the one "poll" that comes with the logo of a research agency known for its accuracy. This was the first of the "reports" that started doing the rounds on April 27, the day Bengal witnessed former chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee trying to fit into a garland with Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.
       Then there is the "Central IB report". This detailed district-wise "poll result" gives the alliance a majority of 150 seats; it gives Trinamool 136 and the BJP five. But there is another "Central IB report", which corrects the data and gives the alliance 165 seats, Trinamool 121 and BJP eight.

        Wouldn’t Goebbels, the German Propaganda Minister of Hitler, be happy that he had been able to leave behind a crop of his progenitors in West Bengal, at least, and be consoled that he has so long been ‘more sinned against than sinning’ by way of denigration in the state which joined the chorus against him after the fall of the Third Reich?

            We don’t know what’s in store for the contesting and contending parties but we cannot and shouldn’t rely on the disinformation being doled out .I believe the leaders of the parties don’t go by such disinformation. We may  read what Mr. Biman Bose,Left Front chairman, said on 13 May hinting at what he  understands could be the possible outcome. CPI(M) West Bengal unit website http://www.cpimwb.org.in/  carries what the leader said.Biman Bose said after the Left Front meeting “No victory rally will be brought out in the constituencies where left candidates win.” (নির্বাচনী ফলাফলে যে সকল আসনে বাম প্রার্থীরা জয়লাভ করবেন, সেখানে করা যাবে না কোনও বিজয় মিছিল।)   The leader then said “Price of commodities is sky rocketing.The Task Force has failed to harness the rise.Bankura and Purulia are under drought situation.water for irrigation and drinking is not available.State Government is unresponsive.Left Front will take to street in protest.” (, জিনিসপত্রের অস্বাভাবিক মুল্যবৃদ্ধি হয়েই চলেছে। মূল্যবৃদ্ধি নিয়ন্ত্রণে টাস্ক ফোর্স ব্যর্থ। বাঁকুড়া, পুরুলিয়ায় খরা পরিস্থিতি, নেই চাষের জল, নেই পানীয় জল। হেলদোল নেই রাজ্য সরকারের। এই সব ঘটনার প্রতিবাদে রাস্তায় নামবে বামফ্রন্ট।) Does it mean that the Left Front is going to protest against the inaction of their newly installed  Alliance Government?

 

 

 

 

 

Cruelty thy Name is Stupidity

         West Bengal Election Campaign

     Cruelty thy Name is Stupidity

                                Nidhu Bhusan Das

West Bengal Assembly Election 2016 is over. The results are on 19 May. Right now we don’t know who will win. Whatever be the result, Ms Mamata Banerjee,  Chief Minister, will be remembered as a victim of cruelty meted out to her by the opposition. Etiquette and niceties of democratic practice were thrown to the wind. She was subjected to a witch-hunt by the coalition of the Left Front and Congress soon after the campaign for the last phase of the election was over. 

                                                       

            In the last leg of her campaign, Mamata was in Cooch-Behar.She left the district in the evening for Chalsa in the neighbouring district for rest after a grueling campaign trail that covered all the 294 constituencies.Mamata did not choose to be in a Government bungalow.She stayed in a private lodge. She was the lone campaigner for her party. They raised the hue and cry that the Chief Minister chose to stay at Chalsa to manipulate and vitiate the election process. A team of senior congress leaders rushed to Siliguri to checkmate her. A senior CPI (M) leader from Siliguri rushed to Falakata to monitor the electioneering by his comrades  and instruct them as well as to file complaints to the Election Commission online and by phone. Media reports suggest he accomplished his mission.

              This eloquently speaks of the stupidity of a section of our politicians. If one can communicate with the Election Commission back in Kolkata or New Delhi from a remote corner, is it necessary for Mamata to stay at Chalsa to influence the election process in Cooch-Behar in this Information Age? Can it be the ground for witch-hunting the Chief Minister? Is it untrue that Dawood Ibrahim  has been able to run his network in India from abroad though he is wanted in the country?

             But, unfortunately, it happened. We generally see once a person becomes an MLA, MP or a minister, his/her health improves because of a regulated way of daily life and strict recipe. In case of Mamata, it is just the reverse. Not that she is ill, but it is because she overworks as Chief Minister and party supremo.We also see a section of the Bengali Elite,at the drop of a hat, is critical of Mamata who does not belong, by birth, to the elite class. Such conscience keepers of West Bengal have been unable to see and understand the witch-hunting. It is strange but true.