Fight for the Whitehouse

    Fight for the

    Whitehouse

                                            Nidhu Bhusan Das

 

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

        



The race for US Presidency is on. The popular vote is on 8 November 2016.U.S. citizens vote in the presidential vote every four years on Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The election is held in even-numbered years like this year. On the day the voters will elect the electors, the members of the Electoral College, who ultimately elect the President and his/her running mate, the Vice-President on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, this time on December 19.The electoral votes are counted in the joint session of Congress, the federal legislature in January. This time they will be counted on 6 January 2017.That day will let the world know who succeeds the incumbent Barak Obama who retires after serving two terms of eight years.

     Nomination:  Now who join the race and how?  The US has two dominant parties –the Republicans and the Democrats. There are Third Parties as well like the Green Party and the Constitution Party. Third parties and independent candidates are minor players in the US, unlike in India.

The two dominant parties nominate their candidates in primaries or caucuses. In a Primary, party members vote for the best candidate who will represent them in the General Election. In a Caucus party members select the best candidate through a series of discussions and votes. 

    Eligibility: The Presidential candidate must be a natural born citizen, at least 35 years old and U.S. resident for 14 years.

    General Election: People in every state across the country vote for one President and Vice President. When they cast their vote, they are actually voting for a group of people know as Electors.  

   Electoral College: The Electoral College comprises the electors who serve as intermediaries for the country’s voters. In the system each state and the District of Columbia gets a certain number of electors based on its representation in the Congress. The District of Columbia is not a state and does not have any representation in the Congress. But they have 3 electors like the state of Wyoming which has the lowest population. Each state has two senators (the members of the Senate, the Upper House of the Congress like the Rajya Sabha of the Indian Parliament) and a different number of members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the federal legislature like the Indian Loksabha.U.S. states are entitled to a number electors equal to the number of their members of Congress. The number of Representatives changes every 10 years, based on the population of the state.

This time the strength of the Electoral College is of 538. A simple majority of 270 i.e. 51% votes will decide who will occupy the Whitehouse for the next four years.

Usually, the electors vote according to the results of the November popular vote. However, the federal law or the Constitution does not mandate them to do so.

In the history of the United States, the winner of the popular vote didn’t win the electoral vote four times in 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000. In 2000 Al Gore won the highest popular votes but the Electoral College selected George W. Bush for president.

    Front Runners : This time two front runners are  the former First Lady and Secretary of state for the first term Obama administration  Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party and  Donald Trump of the Republican Party.

        

Bureaucracy in Bengladesh

Bureaucracy in Bengladesh

           Nidhu Bhusan Das

         The Government of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh faces a challenge to fill in the vacancies following the retirement of top bureaucrats who imbibe the spirit of the Liberation War. These bureaucrats help the Prime Minister implement the agenda of bringing about a resurgent and

developed Bangladesh shorn of fundamentalism.

         Bureaucracy in Bangladesh, for different reasons, is politicized to a significant extent. After the assassination of the Father of the Nation Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, fondly called Bangabandhu, on 15 August 1975, the new nation remained under military rule till 1990. The military rulers depended on the support of the civil bureaucracy, and in lieu of the support the civil bureaucracy strengthened its position. The military and dictatorial rule ended in 1990 with the widow of the assassinated President Ziaur Rahman, Begum Khaleda Zia winning the parliamentary elections and becoming Prime Minister with the support of the Islamic party Jamat-e-Islami. Her rule saw a massive politicization of the bureaucracy.

        The primary emphasis was placed on recruiting “party men bureaucrats”. Besides, it is alleged; candidates with links to student wings of the ruling party and its ally Jamat-e-Islami were recruited. On February 8, 1992, the government decided to promote as many as 654 officials, which created a lot of controversy.

        In 1996, a number of senior bureaucrats were directly involved in a movement to remove a democratically elected government. In 2001, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party returned to power and had since tried to maintain firm control over the bureaucracy, making it highly politicized. The government appointed 978 officials as “Officer on Special duty” (OSD). The rule of seniority was, allegedly, circumvented to serve the political interest of the ruling party. 493 officials were promoted to the post of Deputy Secretary depriving 322 on February 10 and 16, 2003. On August 27, 2003, 97 were promoted to the post of Additional Secretary depriving 104 and 49 were promoted to the post of Joint Secretary depriving 277 on August 27, 2003. 61 were promoted depriving 31 on March 5, 2005. 378 Senior Assistant Secretaries were promoted to the post of Deputy Secretary depriving around 200 others on January 26, 2006. 153 Deputy Secretaries were elevated to the post of Joint Secretary on July 13 2006, depriving around 100 eligible officers.

       A number of civil servants directly participated in political activities and sought nomination to participate in the upcoming elections. For instance, a civil servant appointed on contractual basis after his retirement was known to be involved in active politics and was projecting himself as a candidate of the ruling party. Thus the top bureaucracy was packed with civil servants favoured by and loyal to the BNP-Jamat combine, it is alleged.

Now, of the 74 secretaries,50 percent are said to be aligned to BNP-Jamat camp,25 percent always tend to be with the party in power and the rest 25 percent go with the spirit and ideology of the Liberation War of 1971.

       Political analysts in Dhaka say, in a couple of years, bureaucrats endowed with the spirit of the Liberation War are going to be few and far between in Bangladesh. Specifically, BCS officers up to1984 batch, by and large, have the spirit. Some of them are already retired. Some got extension for two years on January 26, 2006.The analysts say, it is imperative that the pro-liberation officers be kept in positions of decision making and power till subsequent recruits having the historical sense and spirit of the Liberation War are found capable to deal with the fundamentalist elements in the post-1984 bureaucrats who are thoroughly imbibed with the idea of an Islamic State. The Muslim bureaucrats of the pre-1985 BCS are secular because they have seen or taken part in the War in different forms and manners.

        About 20 secretaries are serving on extension. When the extension period is over, there may not be enough personnel suitable to fill in the vacancies, say the analysts. Those who are retired may be brought to different positions by way of nominations for implementing the agenda of the present government to bring about a qualitative change in the governance and polity which the Hasina Government is set to do, the secular and pro-liberation intellectuals of the capital opine.

       The Government appears to be aware of the situation. Meanwhile, Dr. Mohammad Sadique has been brought as the Chairman of the Public Service Commission, and Mr Ujjwal Bikash Datta and Mr. Abul Kalam Azad are made its members after retirement. Mr. Hasan Mahmood Khandakar, former IGP have been made the Ambassador of Bangladesh in Spain, Mr. Abdul Mannan Hawladar, former secretary, is now Ambassador to Mauritius, Mr. Sobhan Sikdar, former Secretary, Establishment, is now Ambassador to Rome. Mr. Mikhail Shipar, former Secretary has been given extension like some other secretaries, inter alia, Mr. Sayeed Manjurul Islam, Mr. Mohammad Alauddin. They are all efficient bureaucrats and are of immense value to the present Government. Mr. Mollah Wahiduzzaman, former PS to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was upgraded to the position of the Chairman of the Privatization Board with the status of a State Minister. He served in that position till 31st August last with authority and efficiency. Such former bureaucrats, it appears, are thought to be assets of the present dispensation in Bangladesh.

linkme.nidhu@gmail.com

Another Mamata Magic

               Exit Polls Predict

       Another Mamata Magic

           

                                     Nidhu Bhusan Das

 The exit polls published in the evening of 16 May  for West Bengal Assembly polls 2016 held in seven phases  spread over  32 days predict  Mamata Banerjee’s  Trinamool Congress (TMC) retains power and forms the government the second time in a row. The predictions belie the hope and claim of the opposition and main contender Left Front-Congress Alliance, the strange bedfellows, that they would dethrone the Didi’s party. It also might have dampen the spirit of certain euphoric mobile apps  and social networks users who predicted  with statistical jugglery  a victory of the Alliance ,and even released a cabinet .However, the Alliance leaders would not  yield ground till the counting and declaration of the results by the Election Commission. They are hopeful that the formation of an alliance government is only a matter of time. CPI-M MP Ritabrata Banerjee and Congress leader Abdul Mannan said that whatever might be the exit poll prediction, the formation of the alliance government was "imminent". Mannan claimed people had voted in favour of the alliance. We all tend to hope against hope till the end. 

          TMC spokesperson Derek O'Brien said in response to the polls: "We don't want to comment. But there has been a negative campaign run against us by the BJP and the Congress and Left."

He said, “We will wait for May 19 and the actual results. The people of Bengal will bless Trinamool abundantly. Mamata Banerjee government's peace and communal harmony will win the hearts and minds of the people of Bengal."

Courtesy: NDTV

            The poll of polls - which aggregates different exit polls - shows the Chief Minister's Trinamool Congress wins 184 of 294 seats. It has the same number of seats, 184, in the outgoing assembly.
The Left-Congress Alliance is predicted to win 103 seats and the BJP, five.
India Today predicts a landslide for the Trinamool with 243 seats. It says the Left-Congress will win 45 seats and the BJP will win three.
ABP Ananda predicted that 163 seats would go to the Trinamool, 126 to the Alliance and the BJP would get one seat.
Chanakya gives Mamata Banerjee's party 210 seats, the Left and Congress 70 and the BJP 14 seats.
          Senior journalist Manini Chatterjee said,” I feel that Mamata Banerjee's hold over the underclass, the poor is very much there. I think she has the edge in Bengal.”

         Dr Sandeep Shastri said, “Voters are giving time to the Mamata government to deliver on promises made.”

         Surjit Bhalla said, “What we are seeing in Assam and West Bengal is the beginning of the end of Congress.”

         If the predictions come true, Mamata is going to form the government.

        In the outgoing Assembly Trinamool Congress has 184 members which she is going to retain this time round, and anti-incumbency might have not played any role. Left Front has 62 and Congress 42 members in the outgoing Assembly. In case what the Poll of Polls shows tallies with the actual outcome, the Alliance is going to be down one seat from 104, BJP is gaining four and GJM is set to lose one from three and two incase SUCI retains its one seat. In case the BJP tally includes the GJM seats if they retain their all three, BJP is going two gain

one only. Last time Congress fought the elections in alliance with Trinamool Congress. In the event of India Today’s projections coming true, Mamata stands to have a big gain of 59 seats while the Alliance loses the equal number. If the Chanakya forecast tallies with the actual results, TMC will gain 26 while the Alliance stands to lose 34 seats.

ABP Ananda predicted a loss of 21 seats for TMC and a gain of 22 for the Alliance, no gain for BJP.

        Let us wait two more days what is the actual verdict.

 

WB Assembly Polls: Suspension of Disbelief

   WB Assembly Polls: Suspension of Disbelief

Euphoria may give way to

Dysphoria for Party Zealots

                                               Nidhu Bhusan Das

             A dysphoria is bound to set in among those party zealots in West Bengal who are euphoric ,being in a state of suspension of disbelief, about the actual outcome of the State Assembly elections 2016 well ahead of the counting of votes and declaration of results on 19 May. These zealots are, perhaps, passing through a high-energy delusional phase to the point of being in a bipolar disorder.   WhatsApp groups and certain  contributors in the Wikipedia  predict victory for the Left Front-Congress Alliance contrary to the opinion polls published  before the elections.

      

      Summary of West Bengal Assembly Election 2016                                       Opinion Poll

(March-2016 Projection)
Party/Alliance	Elections.in	India TV-C Voter	ABP-Neilsen	News Nation	ETV Bangla
TMC	190	160	178	165	201
CPM+	100	127	110	125	64
BJP	2	4	1	1	0
Other	2	3	5	3	0
Total Seats	294	294	294	294	266

            According to an analysis by renowned Journalist Prannoy Roy who is an expert in election coverage, the Trinamool Congress has 60% chance of coming back to power in West Bengal. The Left-Congress combine has 40% chance of winning. The analysis points out that a swing of 3% votes could change the outcome of the elections. . Roy’s analysis is based on historical data and current alliances.

           One may, reasonably, argue that the elections outcome may be different following the collapse of a wing of the flyover in Kolkata and the Narada Sting operation expose in the midst of the polls. How much the swing factor was influenced by these and the stringent measures of the Election Commission is a matter of guess until the counting of votes. The Exit polls to be published on 16 May evening may give a hint.

         The Times of India, in reference to the menace, says, Section 126 of the Representation of the People's Act-1951 bans polls (including exit polls) from 48 hours before an election and does cover "electronic media".
But, according to the rulebook, "electronic media" includes radio and television but not mobile phones, leave alone a phone-based app.

        So, the WhatsApp groups have taken over, trying to bridge an important demand-supply gap. Taken together, these "polls" throw up curious results, giving a wide variety of outcomes for the same election.

        The first of these "poll results" started doing the rounds of WhatsApp forums six days back. It shows the LF-Congress alliance galloping to office with 176 seats; the ruling Trinamool Congress gets a mere 114. This "poll" gives BJP three seats. But even Left and Congress leaders have dubbed this "result" as "very ambitious".
It also gives the vote shares down to a decimal point: TMC gets 37.6%, the opposition alliance 44.1% and the BJP 10.8%. This is the one "poll" that comes with the logo of a research agency known for its accuracy. This was the first of the "reports" that started doing the rounds on April 27, the day Bengal witnessed former chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee trying to fit into a garland with Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.
       Then there is the "Central IB report". This detailed district-wise "poll result" gives the alliance a majority of 150 seats; it gives Trinamool 136 and the BJP five. But there is another "Central IB report", which corrects the data and gives the alliance 165 seats, Trinamool 121 and BJP eight.

        Wouldn’t Goebbels, the German Propaganda Minister of Hitler, be happy that he had been able to leave behind a crop of his progenitors in West Bengal, at least, and be consoled that he has so long been ‘more sinned against than sinning’ by way of denigration in the state which joined the chorus against him after the fall of the Third Reich?

            We don’t know what’s in store for the contesting and contending parties but we cannot and shouldn’t rely on the disinformation being doled out .I believe the leaders of the parties don’t go by such disinformation. We may  read what Mr. Biman Bose,Left Front chairman, said on 13 May hinting at what he  understands could be the possible outcome. CPI(M) West Bengal unit website http://www.cpimwb.org.in/  carries what the leader said.Biman Bose said after the Left Front meeting “No victory rally will be brought out in the constituencies where left candidates win.” (নির্বাচনী ফলাফলে যে সকল আসনে বাম প্রার্থীরা জয়লাভ করবেন, সেখানে করা যাবে না কোনও বিজয় মিছিল।)   The leader then said “Price of commodities is sky rocketing.The Task Force has failed to harness the rise.Bankura and Purulia are under drought situation.water for irrigation and drinking is not available.State Government is unresponsive.Left Front will take to street in protest.” (, জিনিসপত্রের অস্বাভাবিক মুল্যবৃদ্ধি হয়েই চলেছে। মূল্যবৃদ্ধি নিয়ন্ত্রণে টাস্ক ফোর্স ব্যর্থ। বাঁকুড়া, পুরুলিয়ায় খরা পরিস্থিতি, নেই চাষের জল, নেই পানীয় জল। হেলদোল নেই রাজ্য সরকারের। এই সব ঘটনার প্রতিবাদে রাস্তায় নামবে বামফ্রন্ট।) Does it mean that the Left Front is going to protest against the inaction of their newly installed  Alliance Government?

 

 

 

 

 

Cruelty thy Name is Stupidity

         West Bengal Election Campaign

     Cruelty thy Name is Stupidity

                                Nidhu Bhusan Das

West Bengal Assembly Election 2016 is over. The results are on 19 May. Right now we don’t know who will win. Whatever be the result, Ms Mamata Banerjee,  Chief Minister, will be remembered as a victim of cruelty meted out to her by the opposition. Etiquette and niceties of democratic practice were thrown to the wind. She was subjected to a witch-hunt by the coalition of the Left Front and Congress soon after the campaign for the last phase of the election was over. 

                                                       

            In the last leg of her campaign, Mamata was in Cooch-Behar.She left the district in the evening for Chalsa in the neighbouring district for rest after a grueling campaign trail that covered all the 294 constituencies.Mamata did not choose to be in a Government bungalow.She stayed in a private lodge. She was the lone campaigner for her party. They raised the hue and cry that the Chief Minister chose to stay at Chalsa to manipulate and vitiate the election process. A team of senior congress leaders rushed to Siliguri to checkmate her. A senior CPI (M) leader from Siliguri rushed to Falakata to monitor the electioneering by his comrades  and instruct them as well as to file complaints to the Election Commission online and by phone. Media reports suggest he accomplished his mission.

              This eloquently speaks of the stupidity of a section of our politicians. If one can communicate with the Election Commission back in Kolkata or New Delhi from a remote corner, is it necessary for Mamata to stay at Chalsa to influence the election process in Cooch-Behar in this Information Age? Can it be the ground for witch-hunting the Chief Minister? Is it untrue that Dawood Ibrahim  has been able to run his network in India from abroad though he is wanted in the country?

             But, unfortunately, it happened. We generally see once a person becomes an MLA, MP or a minister, his/her health improves because of a regulated way of daily life and strict recipe. In case of Mamata, it is just the reverse. Not that she is ill, but it is because she overworks as Chief Minister and party supremo.We also see a section of the Bengali Elite,at the drop of a hat, is critical of Mamata who does not belong, by birth, to the elite class. Such conscience keepers of West Bengal have been unable to see and understand the witch-hunting. It is strange but true.

West Bengal: Media in Power Struggle by Proxy

          West Bengal: Media in

         Power Struggle by Proxy

                                     Nidhu Bhusan Das

     

      When media tend to believe they are privileged to teach a pliable/gullible public and manufacture news accordingly, they are, in fact, involved in the struggle for political power by proxy. Politics is more important for them, and they seek to build and reshape the architecture of the state politics pitting one party against the other, and even go to the extent of helping coalition formation calling interested party leaders to come together to fight against the bete noire of the media baron(s).A particular political leader becomes the bete noire of the baron(s) because (s)he is not pliable.

     Would  Thomas Jefferson ,had he been in West Bengal now, assert what he said long ago as the President of the USA – “…were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers, or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter” ? Jefferson was of the view that where the basis of the government is the opinion of the people, the very first object should be to keep the opinion straight. None can question the sagacity of the assertion. But the wise man might have not anticipated that the media barons would dabble in politics and seek to control it when the political bosses lack wisdom, have scant respect for democracy and are only after power sans the sense of responsibility to the state and the people.

     Is it to keep the opinion of the people straight that the TV media show the Central Security personnel in Murshidabad are in the markets to buy things when elections were on in Jangalmahal to make people believe that the forces on election duty were irresponsible? Is it not the way information is made into story and disinformation is given the semblance of news?

     The media since 1980s till 2011 reported massive malpractices, intimidation, violence and post-poll violence in West Bengal to the extent of chopping off hands of voters who allegedly voted for the hand symbol, and vandalizing the houses of voters who voted against the ruling party. It is known the Election Commission, meanwhile, cleansed the electoral roll deleting ghost voters in thousands, yet a section of the media harps on the presence of ghosts in the polling booths who push the EVM button allegedly for the ruling party.

      Bloodbath was once the part of the electioneering in the state. By the time two phases of the state assembly elections are over without any such cruelty. Is not the Election Commission right when they claim the elections so far have been, by and large, peaceful? The Leader of the Opposition Dr. Surya Kanta Mishra displayed his leadership when he expressed satisfaction regarding the election in Narayangarh wherefrom he seeks reelection when the media continued with the refrain that ghostly and ghastly phenomena desecrated the election process.

   Perhaps Jefferson would be shocked to see how the media deliberately refrain from keeping the opinion of the people straight spreading canard, not in the interest of democracy but in their own interest in the power game.

  If we take into account the perversion of democracy that has taken roots in West Bengal over the decades, we cannot expect an overnight paradise of people’s rule. Media can help develop a democratic awareness and attitude among the people if they can maintain equidistance from the politicians and parties and do not harbour any ambition to pull the string of power from behind. They have areas like development communication for the benefit of the people to mind than politics only. So far, the media in the state have not shown interest in such areas. This is unfortunate.

PS: On 25 April 2015 Civic Body elections were being held in the state when an earthquake jolted and scared the people. A major TV news channel continued with the polls related discussion even when the national channels in no time foregrounded the quake reports and photos. Is it sensitivity enough for such a media outlet to claim sense and sensibility?

Virat Storms India to World Cup Semies

Virat Storms India to 
World Cup Semies

Nidhu Bhusan Das

                  Virat  is the worthy name for Kohli who has again proved himself  the saviour of Team India and stormed the nation into semi-final of ICC  World Cup 2016 with his valiant innings of  82 runs off 52  balls unbeaten. India will take on West Indies in the semi-final.Two other semi-finalists are England and New Zealand.At Mohali Virat bulldozed Aussie bowlers to bring about the anti-climax that led to Indian comeback and eventual victory.

                 Kohli said  before the match,Aussies would be tough as usual but they would take positives out of their 3-0 win Down Under in January.

Virat Kohli celebrates after winning against Australia in the
 ICC World T20, in Mohali, on Sunday.
 Courtesy: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

“We can focus on what we did in Australia and take positives out of it but can’t take anything for granted, it is a virtual quarterfinal. Why we beat them is important to remember rather than thinking only about the result. If we play to our potential, we can beat them again,” asserted Kohli.

           India played the best cricket of the tournament so far to beat a strong Australian side in Mohali. After a bad start, Virat Kohli's brilliance made it possible.

             The first ball of the 20^th over decided the match when skipper M S Dhoni sent the ball to the boundary.

Then, as usual MS Dhoni ended the match with a four. India win by 6 wickets, and into the last four.The 19^th over began after a brief stoppage when Team physio attended the captan.

The penultimate over started with a good delivery from Nathan Coulter-Nile. A dot ball. But Virat Kolhi placed the next ball  where he wanted. It raced through square. He followed it up with a pull shot, went for a four. Poor delivery though. Another four from Virat. This time a superb cover drive, stepping down the pitch and lofting over the cover fielder. A dot ball, then another four through the same area. Nathan Coulter-Nile's last over yielded 16 runs.India now needed four runs.                 Virat  displayed his class in the 18th over. He started with a sumptuous four, pulled in front of deep backward square leg. It was followed by a perfectly timed four through the cover. Then a six. over the long-on boundary. It was followed by a two. 19 runs from the over, and India need another 20 runs from 12 balls.                It was a nail biting chase for India.Again the ace bat Kohli proved how he could sail home to an incredible victory in a crisis situation.